· First biennial conference cum exhibition focused on the Indian forging industry
· This mega two-day event has more than 44 companies from global domain exhibiting at the event, enrolment from over 500 national and international delegates and presentation of 31 technical papers on board
· Indian forging industry’s estimated turnover stands close to Rs. 28,000 crores in FY 14-15 providing employment to approximately 100,000 people in the country
New Delhi 2nd December, 2016: Association of Indian Forging Industry (AIFI) the apex body of the Indian Forging Industry, to commemorate their 50-year long journey is organizing the industry’s first biennial conference-cum-exhibition, Forgetech India 2016 at Hyatt Regency, Gurgaon on 3rd and 4th December 2016.
This forum intends to bring together the entire forging industry and other allied industries on a common platform to share, demonstrate, network, exchange ideas, understand the latest trends worldwide, benchmark their company with the industry stalwarts and being updated on latest developments in forging technologies
Forgetech India 2016 will witness participation from numerous national and international brand enterprises and forging players. Exhibitors covering the whole gamut of forging industry including forgings, forging materials, and forging equipment applied in fields of automobile, solar, aerospace, railways and wind sectors will be exhibiting and showcasing their technology, products and techniques. The exhibition-cum-seminar will have knowledge exchange and sharing within forging companies from India as well as international companies participating from counties like China, Japan, Korea and Europe, who will also be exhibiting their products on the Forgetech India 2016 platform.
Sharing his thoughts, Mr. Ranbir Singh, President, Association of Indian Forging Industry, said, “It is indeed our pleasure to announce the first chapter of India’s biggest biennial conference cum exhibition Forgetech India 2016 on completion of AIFI’s 50 glorious years. This first-of-its-kind industry initiative will be a platform to discuss and share knowledge, insights, environmental and economic trends and industry best practices to uplift and upgrade our facilities and productivity. Another focus area is to position Forgetech as a platform to bring industry and academia together for building awareness and greater understanding of the industry scope and opportunities. The response so far has been overwhelming with over 500 delegates and 44 exhibitors registered.”
AIFI has always been at the forefront of undertaking proactive initiatives targeted towards improving the business environment for its members and contribute in increasing their competitiveness through mutual co-operation and understanding of all parties concerned and constant updating of information and technology.
Overall forging industry scenario
Ø As per the survey conducted by AIFI in 2016, the estimated turnover of the 384 forging units operating in FY 2014-15 was INR 27,835 crore including INR 6,100 crore contributed from exports, providing employment to approximately 100,000 people in the country.
Ø Overall production of forgings increased from 2.11 mn MT to 2.25 mn MT in 2014-15 and the production figure for 2015-16 is estimated around 2.45 mn MT.
Ø With an installed capacity of around 3.76 mn MT, Indian forging industry has a capability to forge variety of raw materials like carbon steel, alloy steel, stainless steel, super alloy, titanium, copper, brass and aluminum.
Ø The overall capacity utilization of industry is also improved in FY 2014-15 stood at around 60% against 55% in FY 2013-14.
Ø Forging production in India likely to grow at CAGR of 9.5% for the period of 2015 – 18 and reach to 2.97 mn MT in FY 2017-18 from 2.25 mn MT during FY 2014-15.
Current Status of Indian Forging Industry: Anticipating Revival
Government’s thrust on manufacturing sector with initiatives like ‘Make in India’ and ‘Skill India’ has definitely created positive economic sentiments amongst the business community. Many global OEMs and Tier-I players are setting up purchasing offices in India and looking at procuring high standard quality products. This will definitely open up doors for lots of Indian manufacturers. Also, several auto OEMs are looking at India as a base for exports to the other Asian, African and even European markets which will push the growth for of auto component industry.
As per industry experts, all segments are likely to post a decline in November sales, which may potentially shave off as much as 2 percentage points from annual GDP growth. Industry feels that while the impact would obviously be more in the short term, however, the flushing out of unaccounted cash from the system is going to have a positive impact in the medium to long-term.
Distressed rural demand over last two years had resulted in decline in volume growth for commercial vehicle sector. Potential revival in rural demand amid improving farm incomes would provide a stimulus to volume and revenue growth of CV companies, thereby improving profitability of forging companies as this sector is one of the major contributor to this segment. Overall the forging industry will witness a flat rate of growth this year, but there are enough positive indications in the long term which will put the industry back on the growth track.
Growth Figures for April -October period
Type of Vehicle
(growth in production)
|
April – October 2016
|
April -Oct 2015
|
April – October 2014
|
Passenger vehicles
|
21,70,180 units
(+7.27%)
|
20,23,063 units
(+10.64%)
|
18,28,560 units
|
Tractors
|
4,17,338 units
(+10.11 %)
|
3,79,002 units
(-8.83%)
|
|
Commercial Vehicles
|
4,61,373 units
(+6.63 %)
|
4,32,705 units
(+10.12%)
|
3,92,927 units
|
Type of vehicle
(domestic sales growth)
|
April – October 2016
|
April -Oct 2015
|
April – October 2014
|
Passenger vehicles
|
 17,74,716 units
 (+11.02%)
|
15,98,504 units
(+8.48 %)
|
3,45,494 units
|
Tractors
|
4,32,638 units
(+20%)
|
3,59,726 units
(-16.73%)
|
4,31,981units
|
Commercial Vehicles
|
3,99,000 units
(+6.92%)
|
3,73,191 units
(+8.02 %)
|
3,45,494 units
|
Considering the overall outlook as indicated in the table above, the forging industry has witnessed a flat growth over the last two years. Both domestic production and domestic sales have grown at a slower pace in the period of April- October 2016 vis-à-vis the same period last year, barring the domestic sales of passenger vehicles (11.02%) and tractors (20%) which registered a faster growth rate during the same period this year.
Financial year sales growth figures
Vehicle Type
|
FY 2016-17 (April-October)
|
FY 2015-16
|
FY 2014-15
|
FY 2013-14
|
Passenger Vehicles
|
1,77,04,716 units
|
27,89,678 units
|
26,01,111 units
|
25,03,685 units
|
Growth
|
|
7.25%
|
3.89%
|
|
Commercial Vehicles
|
3,99,000 units
|
6,85,704 units
|
6,14,961 units
|
6,32,851 units
|
Growth
|
|
11.50%
|
-2.83%
|
|
Tractors
|
4,32,638 units
|
5,71,249 units
|
6,26,839 units
|
6,96,828 units
|
Growth
|
|
-8.87%
|
-10.04%
|
|
Impact of Demonetization:
Commenting on the government’s demonetization initiative Mr. Muralishankar Sambasivam, Vice President, Association of Indian Forging Industry, said, “From the long term perspective it is definitely a positive move by the government in the right direction. There will be huge cash inflows into the banking system resulting in enormous cash reserves, which will subsequently enable banks to fund both industry and infrastructure projects sufficiently. This will also see banks offering lower rate of interests to consumers which in-turn will result in increased investments in real estate and automobiles sectors. In the long run with the anticipation of introduction of GST and the positive impact of demonization, things should pick up from the first quarter of 2017 fiscal year.”
However, during the transition phase the industry will see some amount of stagnation due to sudden demonetization. Elaborating further on the short term impact, Mr. Muralishankar added, “With the decision to scrap the legal tender of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes could impact vehicle sales in the rural markets. During November, the two-wheeler segment, where rural demand plays a major role, sales have fallen 25-30%, while in trucks, retail sales are down 40-50%. Also uncertainty over cash supply will definitely water down the positive impact which was anticipated of good monsoon this year.”
As per industry experts, all segments are likely to post a decline in November sales, which may potentially shave off as much as 2% from the annual growth. Industry feels that while the impact would obviously be more in the short term, however, the flushing out of unaccounted cash from the system is going to have a positive impact in the medium to long-term.
