Gartner Forecasts Flat Worldwide Device Shipments Until 2018

Posted by: at 1/04/2017 03:11:00 am

Emerging Devices Can Enhance Conventional Device Sales

Bangalore, India, 4th January 2017 — Worldwide combined shipments of PCs, tablets, ultramobiles and mobile phones are projected to remain flat in 2017, according to Gartner, Inc. Worldwide shipments for these devices are projected to total 2.3 billion in 2017, the same as 2016 estimates.

There were nearly 7 billion phones, tablets and PCs in use in the world by the end of 2016. However, Gartner does not expect any growth in shipments of traditional devices until 2018, when a small increase in ultramobiles and mobile phone shipments is expected (see Table 1).

"The global devices market is stagnating. Mobile phone shipments are only growing in emerging Asia/Pacific markets, and the PC market is just reaching the bottom of its decline," said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner.

"As well as declining shipment growth for traditional devices, average selling prices are also beginning to stagnate because of market saturation and a slower rate of innovation," added Mr. Atwal. "Consumers have fewer reasons to upgrade or buy traditional devices (see Table 1).  They are seeking fresher experiences and applications in emerging categories such as head mounted displays (HMDs), virtual personal assistant (VPA) speakers and wearables."

Table 1
Worldwide Devices Shipments by Device Type, 2016-2019 (Millions of Units)
Device Type
2016
2017
2018
2019
Traditional PCs (Desk-Based and Notebook)
219
205
198
193
Ultramobiles (Premium)
49
61
74
85
PC Market
268
266
272
278
Ultramobiles (Basic and Utility)
168
165
166
166
Computing Devices Market
436
432
438
444
Mobile Phones
1,888
1,893
1,920
1,937
Total Devices Market
2,324
2,324
2,357
2,380
Note: The Ultramobile (Premium) category includes devices such as Microsoft Windows 10 Intel x86 products and Apple MacBook Air.
The Ultramobile (Basic and Utility Tablets) category includes devices such as Apple iPad and iPad mini, Samsung Galaxy Tab S2, Amazon Fire HD, Lenovo Yoga Tab 3, and Acer Iconia One.
Source: Gartner (January 2017)

The embattled PC market will benefit from a replacement cycle toward the end of this forecast period, returning to growth in 2018. Increasingly, attractive premium ultramobile prices and functionality will entice buyers as traditional PC sales continue to decline. The mobile phone market will also benefit from replacements. There is, however, a difference in replacement activity between mature and emerging markets. "People in emerging markets still see smartphones as their main computing device and replace them more regularly than mature markets," said Mr. Atwal.

Device vendors are increasingly trying to move into faster-growing emerging device categories. "This requires a shift from a hardware-focused approach to a richer value-added service approach," said Mr. Atwal. "As service-led approaches become even more crucial, hardware providers will have to partner with service providers, as they lack the expertise to deliver the service offerings themselves."


About Gartner
Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT) is the world's leading information technology research and advisory company. The company delivers the technology-related insight necessary for its clients to make the right decisions, every day. From CIOs and senior IT leaders in corporations and government agencies, to business leaders in high-tech and telecom enterprises and professional services firms, to technology investors, Gartner is the valuable partner to clients in approximately 10,000 distinct enterprises worldwide. Through the resources of Gartner Research, Gartner Executive Programs, Gartner Consulting and Gartner Events, Gartner works with every client to research, analyze and interpret the business of IT within the context of their individual role. Founded in 1979, Gartner is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, USA, and has 8,300 associates, including more than 1,800 research analysts and consultants, and clients in more than 90 countries. For more information, visit www.gartner.com.  
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